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The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change, by Al Gore
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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER
From the former vice president and #1 New York Times bestselling author comes An Inconvenient Truth for everything—a frank and clear-eyed assessment of six critical drivers of global change in the decades to come.
Ours is a time of revolutionary change that has no precedent in history. With the same passion he brought to the challenge of climate change, and with his decades of experience on the front lines of global policy, Al Gore surveys our planet’s beclouded horizon and offers a sober, learned, and ultimately hopeful forecast in the visionary tradition of Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock and John Naisbitt’s Megatrends. In The Future, Gore identifies the emerging forces that are reshaping our world:
• Ever-increasing economic globalization has led to the emergence of what he labels “Earth Inc.”—an integrated holistic entity with a new and different relationship to capital, labor, consumer markets, and national governments than in the past.
• The worldwide digital communications, Internet, and computer revolutions have led to the emergence of “the Global Mind,” which links the thoughts and feelings of billions of people and connects intelligent machines, robots, ubiquitous sensors, and databases.
• The balance of global political, economic, and military power is shifting more profoundly than at any time in the last five hundred years—from a U.S.-centered system to one with multiple emerging centers of power, from nation-states to private actors, and from political systems to markets.
• A deeply flawed economic compass is leading us to unsustainable growth in consumption, pollution flows, and depletion of the planet’s strategic resources of topsoil, freshwater, and living species.
• Genomic, biotechnology, neuroscience, and life sciences revolutions are radically transforming the fields of medicine, agriculture, and molecular science—and are putting control of evolution in human hands.
• There has been a radical disruption of the relationship between human beings and the earth’s ecosystems, along with the beginning of a revolutionary transformation of energy systems, agriculture, transportation, and construction worldwide.
From his earliest days in public life, Al Gore has been warning us of the promise and peril of emergent truths—no matter how “inconvenient” they may seem to be. As absorbing as it is visionary, The Future is a map of the world to come, from a man who has looked ahead before and been proven all too right.
Praise for The Future
“Magisterial . . . The passion is unmistakable. So is the knowledge. Practically every page offers an illumination.”—Bloomberg
“In The Future . . . Gore takes on a subject whose scale matches that of his achievements and ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
“Historically grounded . . . Gore’s strengths lie in his passion for the subject and in his ability to take the long view by putting current events and trends in historical context.”—Publishers Weekly
“Provocative, smart, densely argued . . . a tour de force of Big Picture thinking.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“A luminously intelligent analysis that is packed with arresting ideas and facts.”—The Guardian
- Sales Rank: #89168 in Books
- Published on: 2013-10-08
- Released on: 2013-10-08
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.20" h x 1.30" w x 6.10" l, 1.67 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 592 pages
From Booklist
Since exiting the political stage after the controversial presidential election of 2000, Al Gore has pursued a lucrative business career while continuing his series of works of environmental warning, which began with Earth in the Balance (1992). While less admonitory than An Inconvenient Truth (2006), Gore’s green concerns persist in this new assembly of prognostications, which organize the author’s vision of humanity’s prospects into six categories. Those are economic globalization (which Gore tags as “Earth, Inc.”), instantaneous communication (“the Global Mind”), international relations, demography and capitalism, human health and biotechnology, and natural resources and climate change (“the Edge”). Identifying trends in each area, Gore the polymath posits directions and destinations he sees as desirable and scolds what he regards as the impediment to their realization, namely, a corruption of American democracy by corporations, lobbyists, and campaign cash. Certainly a wide-ranging socioeconomic and scientific survey of humanity’s next decades, Gore’s palpably political imperative is the distinguishing trait of this contribution to futurology, a genre with a checkered past. Time will tell whether the author’s predictions hold up. HIGH-DEMAND BACKSTORY: Some of former vice president Al Gore’s books have cracked best-seller lists, and though this title will not likely do so, Gore’s high media profile will draw plenty of attention to his new book. --Gilbert Taylor
Review
“Magisterial . . . The passion is unmistakable. So is the knowledge. Practically every page offers an illumination.”—Bloomberg
“In The Future . . . Gore takes on a subject whose scale matches that of his achievements and ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
“Historically grounded . . . Gore’s strengths lie in his passion for the subject and in his ability to take the long view by putting current events and trends in historical context.”—Publishers Weekly
“Provocative, smart, densely argued . . . a tour de force of Big Picture thinking.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“A luminously intelligent analysis that is packed with arresting ideas and facts.”—The Guardian
“This is a great book. From political policy and economics to science and the most thorny ethical issues, Al Gore has stated the human condition and the issues we face forthrightly, fearlessly, and in easily understood language—and has said what must be done. I asked myself halfway through who else could have written a book of this magnitude. The only answer I could imagine was Jefferson.”—E. O. Wilson, Harvard University, two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize
“I’m a pro-growth supply-side economist, so my admiration for Al Gore may seem like an oxymoron. It’s not. This book is amazingly rich in wisdom, practicality, and insight. Al Gore has a portfolio that warrants credibility and is an accomplished polymath who transcends ideology while turning our attention to big issues, big ideas, and big solutions. The Future frames the discussion whether you’re conservative, agnostic, or liberal. It’s a fascinating deep read.”—Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D.
“Whether he’s discussing cyberspace, the environment, science, or the economy, Al Gore presents in this book, with impressive breadth and well-researched depth, the challenges we have to meet to ensure that they become opportunities rather than threats. If you are concerned about the massive changes the world is just heading into, then you should read this book. If you aren’t, then you must read it!”—Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web
From the Hardcover edition.
About the Author
Former vice president Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. He is also a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple Inc.’s board of directors. Gore spends the majority of his time as chairman of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis. Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives four times and the U.S. Senate twice. He served eight years as vice president. He authored the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, and Our Choice. He is a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
Most helpful customer reviews
142 of 167 people found the following review helpful.
A Brief Summary and Review
By A. D. Thibeault
*A full summary of this book is available here: An Executive Summary of Al Gore's 'The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change'
Our world is becoming increasingly integrated and complex, and changing faster and faster. Out of the morass of elements involved here, Al Gore identifies 6 themes or factors that are emerging as the major drivers of change. The factors are 1) Work: the movement of labor from West to East (outsourcing); and, at the same time, a shift towards much more automation (robosourcing); 2) Communications: the rise of the internet that has led to a wild proliferation of information, and the ability of the world's population to instantly connect with one another for a host of purposes--and the increasing reach of the internet from the developed to the developing world; 3) Power: the shifting of power from West to East; and, at the same time, the shifting of power from national governments to smaller players, such as businesses and corporations, but also rogue players, such as guerrilla and terror organizations; 4) Demographics: the enormous increase in the world's population, and the movement of peoples both within and across national borders (as the result of numerous factors); 5) Biotechnology: the increasing manipulation of DNA to produce not only new organisms with novel features, but new materials and fuels as well, and 6) Climate Change: the increase in world temperatures caused by the continuing build-up of CO2, as well as the numerous other climate effects that this entails.
While several of these drivers of change have the potential to bring great benefits to the world's people, all are fraught with potential dangers, and it is this that is Gore's focus in the book. This, as well as Gore's own advice as to how best to deal with the potential dangers.
When it comes to work, Gore argues that the major danger is that the increasing robosourcing of labour (and even services) threatens to eventually deprive a large portion of the world's population of gainful employment. The major solution is to increasingly redistribute wealth from the few who earn the bulk of wealth to public services provided by government.
When it comes to communications, the major threat is the vulnerability of people's personal information (and organizations' operational information) of being collected (or stolen) by numerous players (including corporations, governments and criminal organizations) and used for nefarious purposes. The major solution is to introduce new measures to ensure that information is protected, and people's privacy preserved.
When it comes to power, the major danger is that the private interests of groups that are gaining power (especially multi-national corporations) will increasingly run up against the interests and values of private citizens. The major solution is to reform our democracies to ensure that the interests of corporations do not continue to outbalance the interests of citizens.
When it comes to demographics, the major danger is that the continuing rise in the world's population will place an overbearing amount of stress on the world's natural resources, and that this will ultimately lead to the depletion of said resources. The major solution is to continue efforts to curb global population, and to introduce efforts to reduce consumption to sustainable levels.
When it comes to biotechnology, the major danger is that the discoveries and innovations that are being made here are being introduced faster than we are able to consider their ethical implications and potential negative consequences. The major solution is to ensure that we subject these innovations to full inquiry and public debate, in order that we may decide deliberately just what we want to allow, and what we do not.
When it comes to climate change, the major danger is that the world will experience irreversible climate effects, and that these effects will compromise the world's arable land and water sources to the point where we will not be able to meet our needs. The major solution is for the governments of the world to take action now to reduce CO2 emissions, by way of such measures as taxing CO2, and introducing a cap and trade system, as well as introducing subsidies for renewable energy sources (and cancelling those currently given to fossil fuel corporations).
Regardless of our political views, Gore's book does contain a lot of very interesting information about the world today, and the forces that are guiding change. It is of value to anyone who is interested in gaining a big-picture view of what is going on now, and where the world is potentially heading. It should be noted, though, that Gore is very single-minded (unduly, I believe) in what he believes are the solutions to the world's problems. They virtually always involve government interference and regulation. In other words, they are fully top-down. Gore gives very short shrift to the potential of bottom-up solutions (and is rather black and white in his thinking), which, I believe, is a major shortcoming of the book. Again, though, a worthwhile read no matter our political views. A full summary of the book is available here: An Executive Summary of Al Gore's 'The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change'
134 of 165 people found the following review helpful.
Very Thoughtful -
By Loyd Eskildson
'The Future' covers what author Gore believes are the six most important drivers of global change. They are, The emergence of
1)A deeply interconnected global economy.
2)Planet-wide electronics linking to rapidly expanding volumes of data, ubiquitous sensors throughout the world, and intelligent devices and robots.
3)A new balance of political, economic, and military power that is shifting influence from West to East, from wealthy to emerging states, from political systems to markets, and from nation-states to private actors.
4)Rapid unsustainable growth in population, water and other natural resource consumption, and pollution - all guided by a distorted set of economic metrics (eg. 'quarterly capitalism,' GDP).
5)A new set of biochemical, genetic, and materials science technologies enabling us to alter plants, animals, and ourselves, as well as create new materials.
6)New relationships between humans and the Earth's ecology.
One of the most interesting sections was Gore's treatment of the new economy and its impact on the U.S. and the developed world. He contends we don't recognize the employment impact of automation (3D-printing and much cheaper and easier to program robots are the latest developments), 'self-sourcing' - eg. ordering items from the Internet instead of interacting with clerks, and outsourcing to other nations - eventually these trends will challenge the role of labor in the economy of the future.
Nobel-winner Stiglitz contends that the massive loss of agricultural jobs was a much larger factor than first thought in deepening the Great Recession, and another wrenching period may follow the job losses that have resulted from the 'Great Recession,' automation, and sending jobs to other nations.
Another result is the greater concentration of income in the hands of an elite few. In the U.S., half of all capital gains income goes to the top one-thousandth of one percent, rationalized on the basis that these are the 'job creators.' However, per Gore, with automation and off-shoring and sending jobs to Mexico, the impact of the capital they provide is negative on jobs. The top 1% have more wealth than the bottom 90%, the wealthiest 400 more aggregate wealth than the bottom 50%, and the five Walton children and one daughter-in-law of Sam/Bud Walton have more wealth than the bottom 30% of Americans. The top 1% now receive almost 25% of all U.S. income, up from 12% 25 years ago. The last decade in the U.S. is the only one where zero net jobs have been added to the economy, while productivity growth was higher than any decade since the 1960s.
The purchasing-power GDP of developing countries will pass that of advanced economies in 2013; they have also become the principal engine of world economic growth.
The growth and complexity of financial markets also worries the author. Exotic, 'manufactured financial products' now are traded in volumes 40X larger than all the world's stock markets; the estimated value of derivatives is now 13X the combined value of all stocks and bonds. High-speed, high frequency trading represents 60% of all trades in the U.S. and Europe. The share of the American economy now devoted to the financial sector has doubled from about 4% in 1980 to over 8% now. Less than 1% of derivatives are based on the value of actual commodities, 82% on interest rates, 11% on foreign exchange contracts, 6% on credit derivatives. The value of oil derivatives, for example, is 14X the value of all the actual oil traded. Nobel-winner Stiglitz calls the rationalization for these exotic instruments ('more market liquidity') 'fake liquidity.'
These trades are almost totally unregulated, thereby adding risk such as programs reacting to other programs rather than underlying market realities. On 5/6/2010 the value of the NYSE fell and then rose 1,000 points within 16 minutes, most likely due to interactions between such computer programs. A proposed solution, keep all offers open at least one second, was roundly defeated by lobbyists. Since U.S. banks were earning about $35 billion/year from derivative trading prior to 2008, they're not likely to be reigned in now.
Short-term capitalism is also addressed. A recent survey asked CEOs/CFOs their reaction to an investment that would create improved profits and sustainability in the future but cause them to slightly miss their next quarterly earnings reports. About 80% said 'No.'
World population numbers have quadrupled in less than a century, accelerating the pace of climate change. Farming will be significantly impacted. Weeds appear to benefit much more from extra CO2 than food crops. Corn, soybean, and wheat yields decrease when temperatures rise above levels close to those now existing, or in the recent past. (One study concluded wheat production is down 5.5% because of warming in the last decade.) The predicted impact on corn by the end of this century - a one-third decrease. In addition, increased droughts, disease, and predator insects will further decrease crop yields. Even diseases affecting humans will find the new environment more to their liking.
Dr. James Hanson's recent analysis of the accumulation of 150 square-mile blocks covering most of the world found a 100X increase in extreme high temperatures in recent years vs. earlier decades. He foresees a 'multi-meter' sea rise by the end of this century; 50% of the world population lives within 15 miles of a coastline. Frozen methane underlying Northern areas represents a major 'wild card' that may further accelerate global warming - if released in major quantities.
Those campaigning against taking action to moderate global warming are largely 'liars for hire,' fueled by those with $7 trillion in assets at risk, largely energy companies and their major owners.
On the down side, Gore still supports Free Trade (despite his cautions about the impact on jobs in the U.S.), though he's upset that this encourages pollution by sending production to areas with less restrictions on pollution. Another major problem - Gore is totally unaware of the coming revolution in education, courtesy of the Internet, or the reasons why U.S. health care expenditures (18% of GDP) can and should be significantly reduced (eg. Japan and Taiwan spend only 8% of GDP on health care, 4% for Singapore).
147 of 189 people found the following review helpful.
A thoughtful analysis of future trends
By R. Sampson
In "The Future" Al Gore moves beyond his traditional focus on climate change and takes on the major agents of change in today's global world. The book is very ambitious (and quite long). It looks at the six major forces that are transforming the world, and which will create the major challenges and opportunities for humanity going forward.
The part I liked best focused on how globalization and especially technology are transforming the economy and labor markets. Gore divides this into outsourcing and "robosourcing" (what he calls replacement of jobs by smart machines and robots). Unlike others who feel today's technology is just a continuation of what has come before, Gore sees it as a totally new force with dramatic (and often negative) consequences for workers.
As he points out, advanced information technology is a major driver of inequality. As machines are able to do more work, capital is worth more relative to labor. He notes that in the United States, "50 percent of capital gains to to the top one thousandth of one percent." (For more on technology transforming the job market, I would also recommend The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, which all about how robots and AI will affect jobs).
Beyond this Gore takes on the other trends. For example, he is very optimistic about the global connectivity allowed by technology, calling it the "global mind." Gore seems to think this we lead to more collaboration and emerging consensus on big political issues. But there is plenty of reason to be skeptical... In the U.S. lots of evidence suggests that blogs and social media have actually divided us along even more extreme lines. Liberals and conservatives live almost in different informational universes...so how exactly will the "global mind" overcome this and help solve the challenges we face?
This is a big book that takes on big issues. Many people will not agree with Gore's analysis and certainly not with his prescriptions. Nonetheless, I think it is an important book that does a good job of focusing on the things we will have to struggle with in the next decades.
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